"Emigrating" and "voting" municipalities of lithuania: analysis of socioeconomic and demographic differences

The process of emigration from Lithuania is considered to be one of the most challenging problems in this country. Data reveal that almost 19 per cent of population has emigrated since the re-establishment of the state of Lithuania in 1990. The threat of emigration to the state has been recognized by politicians, researchers and citizens alike. Despite abundant research about out-migration in Lithuania, there is noticeable lack of studies about the option of emigration as an alternative to the option of voting at the municipal level. Theoretical support for this type of research is found in Albert O. Hirschman’s treatise Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. It states that options of emigration and political participation (such as voting) tend to have inverse relationship between each other. This bachelor’s thesis set out to determine differences between the group of municipalities that tend to have higher emigration rates (considered to be “emigrating” municipalities) and the group of municipalities that tend to have higher voter turnout rates (considered to be “voting” municipalities) when the relationship between these rates is understood as inverse. The research problem: the theory of Exit, Voice, and Loyalty explains that decision of an individual between the choice of exit (understood as emigration) or voice (understood as voting) is often determined by external circumstances and inner convictions. It can be said that theory undervalues the potential effect that socioeconomic and demographic background may have on influencing the choice between the two options despite the fact that previous theories and research of both emigration and voting has identified that socioeconomic and demographic attributes significantly indicate the level of willingness of people to emigrate and to vote. It necessitates the examining of the socioeconomic and democratic differences between the tendencies to emigrate or to vote when those options are understood as alternatives to each other. The aim of research is to identify municipalities of Lithuania that may be considered to be “emigrating” and “voting” as well as to analyse socioeconomic and demographic differences between them. Statistical analysis has revealed 45 municipalities can be considered fitting an assumption of inverse relationship between emigration and voter turnout rates. It has also been found that there are significant differences of socioeconomic and demographic indicators between groups of “emigrating” and “voting” municipalities. The former group of municipalities tend to have higher average wages, lower percentage of welfare-receiving residents, lower median age, higher percentage of female residents, higher birth rate and lower percentage of rural residents. The contribution of this paper is three-fold: first of all, conducted research has shown that socioeconomic and demographic variables indeed indicate different tendencies of selection when options to emigrate or to vote are presented as alternatives to one another. Secondly, grouping of “emigrating” and “voting” municipalities emphasized that the challenges of high emigration rates and low turnout should not necessarily be considered as troublesome in all of the municipalities. That might prompt to seek solutions of those challenges at municipal level, empowering local governments to create an environment that discourages emigration and encourages political participation in their municipalities. Lastly, the results of this research complement migration theories and previous research on the subject by indicating that relatively high income level cannot be considered sufficient reason to remain in the country of origin. Vice versa, results also indicate that relatively lower income level cannot be considered sufficient reason to emigrate – individuals in that case may seek alternative options (such as voting) to the solution of the unsatisfactory situation